Goldman Sachs Raises U.S. Recession Probability Amid Escalating Tariff Concerns

Goldman Sachs has revised its economic outlook for the United States, increasing the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%, up from the previous estimate of 20%. This adjustment comes in anticipation of President Donald Trump's implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" set to commence on April 2, a date the administration has dubbed "Liberation Day."

The upcoming tariffs are expected to raise the average U.S. tariff rate to approximately 15%, levels not seen since before World War II. Goldman Sachs economists warn that these measures could lead to increased consumer prices, with core Personal Consumption. . .